Improbable - A Rare Talent
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Improbable

Fee: $35,000 S&N
City Zip - Rare Event,
by A.P. Indy, 2016 CH

A Rare Talent

Improbable brings a blend of stamina and speed that has not been seen before from a son of the accomplished late stallion City Zip, a half-brother to Horse of the Year Ghostzapper.

Improbable's first three races, all victories, came in his debut, the Street Sense S. and the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1), by a combined 12-plus lengths, making him a perfect 3-for-3 as a 2-year-old. In 2020, he has put together a historic three-race winning streak in Grade 1 races: Gold Cup, Whitney S., and Awesome Again S., by a total of 10 lengths and defeating the likes of Maximum Security and earning two of the three fastest two-turn Beyer Speed Figures of the year by older males.

Improbable is a complete outcross in his first four generations. His dam is by noted broodmare sire A.P. Indy, while his second dam is a half-sister to yet another sire Hard Spun, further establishing his promise as a sire for years to come.

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Improbable - A Rare Talent
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Improbable Overview
  • No. 1 Freshman Sire* by 2021 CPI—3.80 (*with more than 100 mares bred)
  • No. 2 Sire by CI in the $25,000-$49,999 stud fee range—2.39, only behind Not This Time
  • First in-foal mares sold for $550,000, $445,000, $420,000, $330,000, $325,000, etc. 
  • No. 2 Freshman Covering Sire by average—$218,187
  • 2020 Eclipse Champion Older Male 
  • Romped in the Awesome Again S. [G1] by 4 1/2 lengths, capturing his third consecutive G1 victory in 2020 and defeating champion Maximum Security; earned a career-best 108 Beyer
  • Dominated the historic Whitney S. [G1] at Saratoga, earning a 106 Beyer gearing down
  • A runaway winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup [G1] at Santa Anita, earning a 105 Beyer
  • Spectacular winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity [G1], easily defeating future G1 winner Mucho Gusto by 5 lengths in his Graded stakes debut in 1:41.18, the fastest time of the race in over a decade
  • Runner-up in the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic [G1] running over 6 1/2 lengths farther than the winner and earning a 108 Beyer and 2 Ragozin—the fastest of the race
  • At 3: won the Shared Belief S. with a 104 Beyer; second in both the Arkansas Derby [G1] and Rebel S. [G2] at 3
  • Undefeated in three starts at 2: broke his maiden on debut at Santa Anita, 7 1/4-length winner of the Street Sense S. at Churchill on the Breeders' Cup undercard, earned a 96 Beyer in the Los Alamitos Futurity [G1]
  • 6-time stakes winner with earnings over $2.7 million
  • From the immediate female family of sire HARD SPUN
  • A son of CITY ZIP, one of the leading sires of the past 15 years, with nearly 90 stakes winners and 7 champions to date
  • Bred a full first book of mares in 2021—177 mares. First foals in 2022

"He has a strong hind-end, good body, nice neck. Lots of balance and quality."
- Katie Taylor, Paulick Report

 

"He was a really nice, stretchy, and really well-balanced horse."
- Mark Taylor, Paulick Report

 

"He's one of the prettiest-moving horses you'll see."
- Bob Baffert, BloodHorse

 

"His stride is so efficient. He hits the ground like a cloud."
- Drayden Van Dyke, DRF

 

“I think of IMPROBABLE and CITY ZIP the same way I think of MUNNINGS and SPEIGHTSTOWN. Our first in-foal mare to IMPROBABLE sold extremely well, which leads you to believe the market is going to receive him very well.”
-Carrie Brogden, who sold Hip 572 at KEENOV for $445,000

Age Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Earned
2 3 3 (2) 0 0 $269,520
3 7 1 (1) 2 (2) 0 $650,000
4 4 3 (3) 1 (1) 0 $1,810,000
Totals 15 7 (6) 4 (4) 0 $2,729,520

Won at 2:

  • Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1) at Los Alamitos (8.5f, D, by 5 lengths, defeating Mucho Gusto, Extra Hope, Savagery, Dueling, King of Speed).
  • Street Sense S. at Churchill Downs (8f, D, by 7 1/4 lengths, defeating Trophy Chaser, Distant Shore, Manny Wah, Marquee Prince, Louder Than Bombs, Moonster, Reward the Miracle, Unionizer).
  • A maiden special weight race at Santa Anita (6f, D, career debut, by a neck, defeating Stetford End, Gray Magician, Tut, Shining Through, Big Cheddar).

Won at 3:

  • Shared Belief S. at Del Mar (8f, D, by 2 3/4 lengths, defeating King Jack, Lieutenant Dan, Street Class).

2nd at 3:

  • Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn (9f, D, to Omaha Beach by 1 length, defeating Country House, Laughing Fox, Galilean, Long Range Toddy, Jersey Agenda,, Tikhvin Flew, Gray Attempt, Six Shooter, One Flew South).
  • Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn (8.5f, D, to Long Range Toddy by a neck, defeating Galilean, Extra Hope, Easy Shot, Ninth Street, Classy John).

Won at 4:

  • Hollywood Gold Cup S. (G1) at Santa Anita (10f, D, by 3 1/4 lengths, defeating Higher Power, Tenfold, Brown Storm (CHI), Midcourt, Parsimony).
  • Whitney S. (G1) at Saratoga (9f, D, by 2 lengths, defeating By My Standards, Tom's d'Etat, Code of Honor, Mr. Buff).
  • Awesome Again S. (G1) at Santa Anita (9f, D, by 4 1/2 lengths, defeating Maximum Security, Midcourt, Take the One O One, Sleepy Eyes Todd).

2nd at 4:

  • Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland (10f, D, to Authentic, defeating Global Campaign, Tacitus, Maximum Security, Tiz the Law, Title Ready, By My Standards, Tom's d'Etat, Higher Power).
  • Oaklawn Mile S. at Oaklawn (8f, D, to Tom's d'Etat by 3/4 lengths, defeating Bankit, Pioneer Spirit, Slick Silver, Mr. Money, Long Range Toddy, Snapper Sinclair, Fight On, Lord Guinness, Boldor).

Printable Pedigree

(.pdf opens in new window)

Generational Pedigree

CITY ZIP (USA)
ch. 1998		 CARSON CITY (USA)
ch. 1987 [BI]		 MR. PROSPECTOR (USA)
b. 1970 [BC]		 RAISE A NATIVE (USA)
GOLD DIGGER (USA)
BLUSHING PROMISE (USA)
b. 1982		 BLUSHING GROOM (FR)
SUMMERTIME PROMISE (USA)
BABY ZIP (USA)
b. 1991		 RELAUNCH (USA)
gr. 1976		 IN REALITY (USA)
FOGGY NOTE (USA)
THIRTY ZIP (USA)
dkb/br. 1983		 TRI JET (USA)
SAILAWAY (USA)
RARE EVENT (USA)
b. 2009		 A.P. INDY (USA)
dkb/br. 1989 [IC]		 SEATTLE SLEW (USA)
br. 1974 [BC]		 BOLD REASONING (USA)
MY CHARMER (USA)
WEEKEND SURPRISE (USA)*
b. 1980		 SECRETARIAT (USA)
LASSIE DEAR (USA)
OUR RITE OF SPRING (USA)
b. 2001		 STRAVINSKY (USA)
b. 1996		 NUREYEV (USA)
FIRE THE GROOM (USA)
TURKISH TRYST (USA)
ch. 1991		 TURKOMAN (USA)
DARBYVAIL (USA)
courtesy of Pedigree Query

Improbable News

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  • No. 1 Freshman Sire* by 2021 CPI—3.80 (*with more than 100 mares bred)
  • No. 2 Sire by CI in the $25,000-$49,999 stud fee range—2.39, only behind Not This Time
  • First in-foal mares sold for $550,000, $445,000, $420,000, $330,000, $325,000, etc. 
  • No. 2 Freshman Covering Sire by average—$218,187
  • 2020 Eclipse Champion Older Male 
  • Romped in the Awesome Again S. [G1] by 4 1/2 lengths, capturing his third consecutive G1 victory in 2020 and defeating champion Maximum Security; earned a career-best 108 Beyer
  • Dominated the historic Whitney S. [G1] at Saratoga, earning a 106 Beyer gearing down
  • A runaway winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup [G1] at Santa Anita, earning a 105 Beyer
  • Spectacular winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity [G1], easily defeating future G1 winner Mucho Gusto by 5 lengths in his Graded stakes debut in 1:41.18, the fastest time of the race in over a decade
  • Runner-up in the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic [G1] running over 6 1/2 lengths farther than the winner and earning a 108 Beyer and 2 Ragozin—the fastest of the race
  • At 3: won the Shared Belief S. with a 104 Beyer; second in both the Arkansas Derby [G1] and Rebel S. [G2] at 3
  • Undefeated in three starts at 2: broke his maiden on debut at Santa Anita, 7 1/4-length winner of the Street Sense S. at Churchill on the Breeders' Cup undercard, earned a 96 Beyer in the Los Alamitos Futurity [G1]
  • 6-time stakes winner with earnings over $2.7 million
  • From the immediate female family of sire HARD SPUN
  • A son of CITY ZIP, one of the leading sires of the past 15 years, with nearly 90 stakes winners and 7 champions to date
  • Bred a full first book of mares in 2021—177 mares. First foals in 2022

"He has a strong hind-end, good body, nice neck. Lots of balance and quality."
- Katie Taylor, Paulick Report

 

"He was a really nice, stretchy, and really well-balanced horse."
- Mark Taylor, Paulick Report

 

"He's one of the prettiest-moving horses you'll see."
- Bob Baffert, BloodHorse

 

"His stride is so efficient. He hits the ground like a cloud."
- Drayden Van Dyke, DRF

 

“I think of IMPROBABLE and CITY ZIP the same way I think of MUNNINGS and SPEIGHTSTOWN. Our first in-foal mare to IMPROBABLE sold extremely well, which leads you to believe the market is going to receive him very well.”
-Carrie Brogden, who sold Hip 572 at KEENOV for $445,000

Age Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Earned
2 3 3 (2) 0 0 $269,520
3 7 1 (1) 2 (2) 0 $650,000
4 4 3 (3) 1 (1) 0 $1,810,000
Totals 15 7 (6) 4 (4) 0 $2,729,520

Won at 2:

  • Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1) at Los Alamitos (8.5f, D, by 5 lengths, defeating Mucho Gusto, Extra Hope, Savagery, Dueling, King of Speed).
  • Street Sense S. at Churchill Downs (8f, D, by 7 1/4 lengths, defeating Trophy Chaser, Distant Shore, Manny Wah, Marquee Prince, Louder Than Bombs, Moonster, Reward the Miracle, Unionizer).
  • A maiden special weight race at Santa Anita (6f, D, career debut, by a neck, defeating Stetford End, Gray Magician, Tut, Shining Through, Big Cheddar).

Won at 3:

  • Shared Belief S. at Del Mar (8f, D, by 2 3/4 lengths, defeating King Jack, Lieutenant Dan, Street Class).

2nd at 3:

  • Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn (9f, D, to Omaha Beach by 1 length, defeating Country House, Laughing Fox, Galilean, Long Range Toddy, Jersey Agenda,, Tikhvin Flew, Gray Attempt, Six Shooter, One Flew South).
  • Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn (8.5f, D, to Long Range Toddy by a neck, defeating Galilean, Extra Hope, Easy Shot, Ninth Street, Classy John).

Won at 4:

  • Hollywood Gold Cup S. (G1) at Santa Anita (10f, D, by 3 1/4 lengths, defeating Higher Power, Tenfold, Brown Storm (CHI), Midcourt, Parsimony).
  • Whitney S. (G1) at Saratoga (9f, D, by 2 lengths, defeating By My Standards, Tom's d'Etat, Code of Honor, Mr. Buff).
  • Awesome Again S. (G1) at Santa Anita (9f, D, by 4 1/2 lengths, defeating Maximum Security, Midcourt, Take the One O One, Sleepy Eyes Todd).

2nd at 4:

  • Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland (10f, D, to Authentic, defeating Global Campaign, Tacitus, Maximum Security, Tiz the Law, Title Ready, By My Standards, Tom's d'Etat, Higher Power).
  • Oaklawn Mile S. at Oaklawn (8f, D, to Tom's d'Etat by 3/4 lengths, defeating Bankit, Pioneer Spirit, Slick Silver, Mr. Money, Long Range Toddy, Snapper Sinclair, Fight On, Lord Guinness, Boldor).

Printable Pedigree

(.pdf opens in new window)

Generational Pedigree

CITY ZIP (USA)
ch. 1998		 CARSON CITY (USA)
ch. 1987 [BI]		 MR. PROSPECTOR (USA)
b. 1970 [BC]		 RAISE A NATIVE (USA)
GOLD DIGGER (USA)
BLUSHING PROMISE (USA)
b. 1982		 BLUSHING GROOM (FR)
SUMMERTIME PROMISE (USA)
BABY ZIP (USA)
b. 1991		 RELAUNCH (USA)
gr. 1976		 IN REALITY (USA)
FOGGY NOTE (USA)
THIRTY ZIP (USA)
dkb/br. 1983		 TRI JET (USA)
SAILAWAY (USA)
RARE EVENT (USA)
b. 2009		 A.P. INDY (USA)
dkb/br. 1989 [IC]		 SEATTLE SLEW (USA)
br. 1974 [BC]		 BOLD REASONING (USA)
MY CHARMER (USA)
WEEKEND SURPRISE (USA)*
b. 1980		 SECRETARIAT (USA)
LASSIE DEAR (USA)
OUR RITE OF SPRING (USA)
b. 2001		 STRAVINSKY (USA)
b. 1996		 NUREYEV (USA)
FIRE THE GROOM (USA)
TURKISH TRYST (USA)
ch. 1991		 TURKOMAN (USA)
DARBYVAIL (USA)
courtesy of Pedigree Query
The requested article 'ID:Improbable' has been removed, renamed, or has expired.

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Electronic Mare Submission

Submit Mare to WinStar Farm

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Stallion(s) of interest:
Always Dreaming
Audible
Constitution
Global Campaign
Good Samaritan
Improbable
Independence Hall
More Than Ready
 Outwork
Paynter
Promises Fulfilled
Speightstown
Take Charge Indy
Tom's d'Etat
Tourist
Yoshida
Mare Information
Mare Name: (required)
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Status:
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Produce History:

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